Latest
- August 26, 2026 Investment Fees Were Half of July's Core PCE; Without Them It Is 3.0 Percent PCE
Half of July's 0.246 percent core PCE increase came from investment-management fees, which are billed against client assets and reprice off the prior quarter's stock market. The same line carried 42 percent of last July's increase. Strip it out and core still runs 3.0 percent over 12 months, more than a point above the Fed's objective — and BEA changes how it prices the line on September 30.
- August 23, 2026 Treasury Will Double Its Long-Bond Buybacks in September; Strong Data Took the Rally Back in Two Days Weekly
The Treasury said on Wednesday it would at least double the size of its buybacks of 10-to-30-year bonds, overriding a schedule it had published two weeks earlier; the larger operations do not begin until September 9. Thirty-year yields fell nine basis points on the announcement, then rose through Thursday and Friday on strong factory surveys and costlier oil to close at 5.27% — above where they started, and below Monday's 5.31%, the highest close since June 2007. Hours after the announcement, the July FOMC minutes showed many participants judging that tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline. Over the week the 30-year's inflation-protected yield fell while its nominal yield rose.
- August 18, 2026 Builders Started the Fewest Single-Family Homes Since 2022; the Entire Annual Decline in Total Starts Is in the South Housing
July housing starts fell 12.4% to a 1.239 million annual pace, a statistically significant drop that reversed June's all-apartment jump. Single-family starts fell to 808,000 — the lowest since November 2022, down a significant 15.7% on the year. The South accounts for more than the entire annual decline in total starts (−205,000 against −193,000 nationally, the only regional total outside the margin of error) and about two-thirds of the single-family decline — the pullback is concentrated in the oversupplied half of the country. Permits rose 5.0% to 1.443 million while homes authorized but not yet started climbed a significant 10.3% on the year; completions, at 1.212 million, are the lowest since May 2020.
- August 17, 2026 The Case for a September Hike Came Apart; the 30-Year Auctioned at Its Highest Yield Since 2001 Anyway Weekly
September hike odds fell from about 55% on Monday to roughly 30% by the weekend as core CPI printed its smallest 12-month rise since February, producer prices went flat, and retail sales fell 0.6% — yet Thursday's $25 billion 30-year auction stopped at 5.216%, the highest since 2001, and the 30-year closed the week at 5.25%, two basis points under its 2026 high. The New York Fed will also make no reserve-management purchases through mid-September, the program's first pause. Short-maturity investors traded the meeting; long-maturity investors were pricing a Fed that won't say how it decides.
- August 13, 2026 The Producer Core's Annual Rate Fell to 4.7 Percent; Its Three-Month Pace Is 5.1 PPI
Producer core inflation's 12-month rate fell to 4.7 percent from 5.0, but its three-month pace is 5.1 percent annualized — the annual figure is catching down to a run rate that has not moved as much. Freight is about 0.25 points of the 0.35-point annual decline, and half of freight's own slowdown is a strong July 2025 leaving the window.
- August 12, 2026 Core Inflation Slowed to 2.5 Percent; Rents Have Not Slowed Since January CPI
Core CPI rose 0.2 percent in July and 2.5 percent over 12 months, the smallest rise since February. The rent measures took no part in it: owners' equivalent rent rose 0.26 percent, a 3.2 percent pace identical to its 12-month rate, and has held between 3.1 and 3.3 percent every month since January. Shelter printed 0.14 percent only because lodging fell 2.8 percent — a line BLS reports with a 1.6-point standard error.
- August 11, 2026 Investors Pulled Back and Repeat Owners Took Their Place Housing
July existing-home sales ran at a 4.06 million annual pace (−1.7% m/m, +0.7% y/y) — a seventh straight month inside 4.01–4.19 million, with June revised up to 4.13 million. Under the flat total the buyer pool shifted: individual investors and second-home buyers fell to 14% of transactions from 20% a year ago, cash to 26% from 31%, leaving repeat owner-occupant buyers at roughly 57% and about three purchases in four carrying a mortgage. The Northeast–South price gap widened to 4.3 points of annual growth. Inventory slipped 0.6% below its year-ago level after going flat in June. The mortgage climb to 6.69% began in early July — after the contracts behind July's closings — so the rate test arrives with the August report on September 10.
- August 8, 2026 The First Negative Payroll Month Since 2020 Cut September Hike Odds Nearly in Half Weekly
The first negative payroll month since 2020 cut September hike odds nearly in half, and the S&P 500 set two record closes in a week — but the jobs report that did it is the year's most ambiguous, the oil relief came from a tentative Hormuz deal, and the Treasury quietly softened its own borrowing language. Gold rose 7% to a seven-week high while 30-year yields eased only to 5.19%: the cyclical scare faded; the structural repricing didn't.
- August 7, 2026 Payrolls Fell 23,000; Unemployment Fell Only Because 264,000 People Left the Labor Force Jobs
July payrolls fell 23,000 against a consensus near +83,000 — the first negative month since 2020, per press readings of the series, with 103,000 more jobs revised away from May and June. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% anyway, because 264,000 people left the labor force. The series disagree on the surface and reconcile through participation — a smaller, softening labor market. Investors priced the dovish side: September hike odds fell from about 67% earlier in the week to near 40%.
- August 4, 2026 Openings Per Unemployed Worker Hit a 17-Month High Because the Labor Force Shrank JOLTS
June JOLTS — job openings were little changed at 7.36 million, yet openings per unemployed worker rose to 1.04, the highest since January 2025. The gauge rose because the unemployed count fell 213,000 in a month when household employment fell 507,000 and 720,000 people left the labor force — slack is falling because people are leaving the labor force, not because they're finding jobs. Quits spent a twelfth straight month at or below 2.0% and layoffs held at 1.1%: still low-hire, low-fire.
- August 1, 2026 30-Year Yields Hit Their Highest Since 2007 in the Week Core Inflation Slowed Weekly
The Fed held 9–3, core PCE rose just 0.1% in June, and 30-year Treasury yields still closed at 5.27% — their highest since July 2007. The three facts don't share one cause: September odds fell because of the hold, stocks recovered on earnings, and long-maturity yields rose because demand for long Treasuries is weakening while Warsh questions how much support the Fed's balance sheet should provide. Also this week: the first joint US–Japan yen intervention in about three decades, and a levered AI fund's forced sale to Citadel.
- July 30, 2026 Core PCE Slowed to 0.1% the Morning After Three Fed Officials Voted to Hike PCE
Core PCE rose 0.1% in June — the softest month since March 2025 — and the 3-month annualized rate fell below 3% for the first time since December, the morning after three FOMC members voted to hike. The cooling survives stripping the volatile financial-services swing, but even at June's pace the 12-month rate is still about 3% in September — cooler, but still about 3 percent into fall.
Explainers
- June 19, 2026 Does the Fed follow through on dot-plot surprises?
Whether the Fed's dot-plot projections actually forecast its rate path — and how to read a fresh dot-plot surprise.