Latest
- June 26, 2026 Cheaper Oil Couldn't Cool a Services Core Weekly
The dovish bet rested on falling oil. This week oil delivered — WTI down more than 10% to $70 as the Strait of Hormuz reopened — and the bet broke anyway, because core PCE hit a three-year high on services inflation that cheaper oil never touches.
- June 20, 2026 The No-Hike Bet Rests on Oil Staying Down Weekly
The market faded the Warsh Fed's hawkish dots because the oil shock collapsed — but this week the floor under cheaper oil took its first hits, and core PCE on June 25 can't settle it.
- June 19, 2026 Warsh's Fed Penciled a Hike the Market Doesn't Believe Weekly
The Warsh Fed flipped its forecast to a 2026 rate hike the market doesn't believe — the same week oil collapsed 25%.
- June 17, 2026 The Warsh Fed's First Move Was Hawkish — and the Bond Market Didn't Buy It FOMC
The Warsh Fed held rates but flipped its dot plot to a hike and marked inflation up; the bond market faded the move.
- June 11, 2026 The Pipe Behind the Pump Is Loaded PPI
May producer prices show the inflation pipeline loading up — a record monthly jump in goods and supercore at a four-year high — held out of consumer prices only by shrinking margins.
- June 10, 2026 The Second Inflation Wave Is, So Far, an Oil Shock CPI
May CPI ran hot, but more than 60% was energy — so far a war-driven oil shock sitting on a core that hasn't broken out.
- June 7, 2026 Everything Is a Rates Trade Now Weekly
A hot jobs print broke a ten-week melt-up and turned every asset into a bet on the Fed.
- June 5, 2026 Behind May's Jobs Beat, a Labor Market at Stall Speed Jobs
May's headline jobs beat masked a labor market at stall speed: full-time work and the private, cyclical core are both shrinking.
Explainers
- June 19, 2026 Does the Fed follow through on dot-plot surprises?
Evergreen explainer. The dot plot (SEP) began June 2012. Linked from fomc QUESTIONS "the dots." Inaugural page of the reference/ library.